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Tragedy on the Horizon: Climate Change, Coastal Erosion, and the Pricing of Losses in the Distant Future.
Floris Blok  1@  
1 : University of Cambridge [UK]

Understanding how far in advance markets price potential losses and the applicable discount rates is crucial for managing climate risk in housing markets. This study exploits the predictable and gradual nature of coastal erosion to estimate discount rates over extended time horizons. Using a unique dataset of 102,855 property transactions along England's eastern coast from 2010-2023, I show that property prices incorporate anticipated losses occurring up to 250 years in the future. By comparing the present values of properties expected to disappear at different points in the future, I find that the implied discount rate schedule exhibits a downward-sloping pattern, with net discount rates (r-g) of 2% for 100-year horizons declining to 1.4% for 175-250 year horizons. The results contribute to our understanding of market efficiency, temporal asset pricing, and the term structure of discount rates in the context of housing and environmental risk, with implications for financial valuation of long-lived assets and investments in climate change mitigation and adaptation.


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