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Explosive Financing? Bank Share Price Reactions to Carbon Bomb Exposure
Martin Wallmeier  1@  , Tim Ceresa  2@  
1 : University of Fribourg
2 : University of Fribourg

On 31 October 2023, a collaboration of international media houses and French non-profit organizations published a report on bank financing of fossil fuel extraction projects representing more than 1 gigaton of CO2 emissions ("carbon bombs"). Despite the fact that the impending carbon bomb emissions significantly exceed the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C, the report shows that major US, European and Asian banks continue to finance these projects. In this paper, we examine the value relevance of this information. We test the competing hypotheses that (1) the market reaction is naively negative; (2) the market reacts to the incremental information about carbon bomb financing that is not yet included in the banks' ESG scores (from LSEG Datastream); and (3) the market focuses on the ESG ratings themselves when incorporating the carbon bomb information. We find that the market reaction was primarily influenced by the banks' ESG scores: the lower the pre-release ESG score, the more negative the market reaction, suggesting that a strong environmental reputation mitigates the negative reaction to the carbon bomb disclosure.


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