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Unpacking Currency Risk in Climate Investments: A Decomposition Framework for Emerging Markets.
Papa Kwaku Baah Orgen  1@  , Sumit Kothari  1@  , Nadia Ameli  1@  
1 : Institute of Sustainable Resources, University College London (UCL)

We assess the dynamic effects of foreign exchange risk in renewable energy investments using machine learning, Bayesian Model Averaging, and structural vector autoregression techniques. Currency risk exerts a significant downward effect on capital intensity, with over half of the currency risk discount on climate investments driven by persistent macroeconomic factors - inflation, real interest rates, political stability, and business cycle risk. These effects exhibit heterogeneity across countries and time, underscoring the importance of stable macro-financial environments. Policy implications emphasize targeting the stable component of currency risk with structural hedging mechanisms to unlock investment and reduce the cost of capital in developing countries.


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