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Paying for nature in a polarised world: The political and socio-demographic drivers of support for forest ecosystem services
Oliver Frings  1, 2, 3, 4@  , Jens Abildtrup  5@  , Harald Vacik  6@  , David Shanafelt  7@  , Antonello Lobianco  5@  
1 : Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée  (BETA)
AgroParisTech, université de Strasbourg, Université de Lorraine, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Université de Lorraine, UFR Droit Sciences Economiques et Gestion, 13 place Carnot CO 70026, 54035 Nancy CedexUniversité de Strasbourg, Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion, 61 avenue de la Forêt Noire 67085 Strasbourg Cedex -  France
2 : Chaire économie du climat
Chaire Economie du Climat de Paris Dauphine
3 : University of Cambridge [UK]
4 : AgroParisTech
AgroParisTech : UP1102
5 : AgroParisTech (Nancy), Université de Lorraine, CNRS, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée ( BETA), Institut national de recherche pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (INRAE)
AgroParisTech (Nancy), Université de Lorraine, Université de Strasbourg, CNRS, Bureau d’Economie Théorique et Appliquée ( BETA),, Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Université de Lorraine, Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
6 : Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche]  (BOKU)
7 : BETA
INRAE
14 RUE GIRARDET -  France

Forests are crucial for mitigating climate change and conserving biodiversity, yet increasing forest ecosystem services (FES) often relies on financial incentives. Payments for ecosystem services (PES) can address these needs, but their success hinges on public acceptance and willingness to pay (WTP). Using a discrete choice experiment in Austria and France, we applied a modelling approach integrating machine learning with econometric methods, revealing two distinct consumer clusters. One cluster, generally younger, more frequent forest visitors, and with higher self-perceived forest knowledge, tends to acknowledge anthropogenic climate change, fear its consequences, and express high WTP for increased FES. By contrast, a more sceptical cluster—predominantly in rural areas and municipalities with high right-wing voting shares—exhibits reluctance toward such programmes. Despite their differing views, both clusters share uncertainty about whether climate change can be halted, indicating that PES support could be at least partly driven by a sense of contribution rather than expected outcomes. The results suggest PES uptake may be enhanced through targeted outreach to younger, urban populations and communication strategies addressing scepticism. Moreover, strong public support and WTP for increased FES provision indicate policies promoting carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and recreation could gain broad acceptance if aligned with societal expectations.


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